Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:25:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb70…f85b
other · 11 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$17 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$210
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage16d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 5 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $56 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 83¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Aryna Sabalenka 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Birmingham: Ashlyn Krueger vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 03 $1 $0 +14%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$17 +168%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 03 $78 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% +$4
sports 5% −$5
crypto 3% +$17
politics 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $3 1h
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $94 8d
Birmingham: Ashlyn Krueger vs Himeno Sakatsume BUY Ashlyn Krueger 87¢ $1 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 74¢ $5 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $79 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 51¢ $5 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $78 15d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 81¢ $8 15d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 92¢ $46 15d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +12.8% +2.0% 67% 50% +1.6%
≤90d 6 +12.8% +2.0% 67% 50% +1.6%
all 6 +12.8% +2.0% 67% 50% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 50% +1.6%
10% -7.7% 33% -8.1%
15% -16.6% 33% -17.0%
20% -24.8% 33% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.34 · official $210.34 (match) · 17 history records