Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FB 0xfb71…8175 crypto 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,349 (-10%) realized −$6,349 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%35W / 63L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$642per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$11,730
sports 1% +$294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +78.7% +61.7% 15% 15% -71.3%
≤30d 13 +78.7% +61.7% 15% 15% -71.3%
≤90d 15 +54.9% +40.1% 13% 13% -74.7%
all 98 +14.7% +3.8% 36% 35% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 35% -32.3%
10% -6.2% 35% -38.8%
15% -15.2% 33% -44.7%
20% -23.5% 33% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$801) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$661 vs −$549 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$6,349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses35 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage98d
Avg bet$642
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $896 −$863 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1,871 −$1,802 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $945 +$2,180 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $888 −$818 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $397 −$378 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $1,003 +$1,232 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $228 −$217 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $745 −$711 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1,715 −$425 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $438 −$413 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $534 −$208 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 02 $686 −$653 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 02 $310 −$292 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 12 $3,000 −$2,961 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 12 $1,781 −$1,755 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 12 $1,000 −$202 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 12 $1,840 −$1,813 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 12 $1,000 +$792 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 12 $200 +$230 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 12 $300 −$295 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 12 $377 +$1,742 +462%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 12 $5,776 −$1,775 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 12 $800 −$792 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 12 $500 +$577 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 12 $1,184 −$1,172 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 12 $888 −$874 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 12 $350 −$278 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 12 $1,000 −$984 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 12 $636 −$626 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 12 $1,999 +$1,300 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 12 $500 +$986 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 12 $300 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 12 $1,291 −$1,279 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 12 $1,666 −$100 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 12 $590 +$693 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 12 $910 −$905 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 12 $890 −$877 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 12 $249 −$245 -99%
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Mar 12 $313 +$394 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 12 $110 +$543 +494%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 12 $300 +$999 +333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 12 $550 +$574 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 12 $300 −$296 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 12 $699 −$689 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 12 $400 −$394 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 12 $1,027 +$30 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $587 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $309 22m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 6¢ $107 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $209 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $749 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $927 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $195 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3,074 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $314 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $632 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $165 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $57 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $323 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $318 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $147 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $250 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $415 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1,820 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $225 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $779 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $228 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $242 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $443 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $877 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $755 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $788 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $593 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.00 · official $151.59 · 228 history records