Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb73…1e52 sports 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,114 (-5%) realized −$1,125 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%63W / 51L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$241est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$293
7 days+$1,211
14 days+$1,211
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,240
world 4% +$274
other 3% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +33.7% +20.9% 67% 67% +21.8%
≤30d 21 -6.9% -15.8% 48% 48% -4.7%
≤90d 77 -6.3% -15.2% 48% 47% -14.3%
all 114 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 48% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 48% -13.9%
10% -21.7% 37% -22.1%
15% -29.2% 28% -29.6%
20% -36.2% 18% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$132 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$544
Realized−$1,125
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses63 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$241
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage316d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Navajo Stirling 76¢ 78¢ $534 $544 +$11 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $406 +$376 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $262 +$118 +45%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $304 −$1 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $300 +$148 +49%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $813 −$432 -53%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$107 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $402 +$98 +24%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $713 +$998 +140%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $46 −$45 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $224 −$100 -45%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $154 +$91 +59%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $77 +$78 +102%
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $360 −$354 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $152 +$209 +138%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $108 −$107 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,037 −$1,034 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $766 +$400 +52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $350 +$153 +44%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 21 $252 −$158 -63%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 21 $305 −$74 -24%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 21 $232 +$38 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 21 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 21 $291 −$221 -76%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 21 $404 −$404 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main May 21 $350 −$350 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig May 21 $430 −$430 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 21 $354 −$72 -20%
76ers vs. Knicks May 21 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 21 $132 +$16 +12%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $127 +$204 +160%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $111 +$23 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $167 +$249 +149%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $101 +$40 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $201 +$59 +29%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $332 +$66 +20%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 12 $642 −$96 -15%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $20 +$8 +42%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $302 −$11 -4%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $233 +$34 +14%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $201 +$32 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 04 $59 +$23 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $106 −$27 -26%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 02 $213 +$190 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 65¢ $202 0m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 76¢ $302 3m
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 58¢ $101 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 38¢ $102 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 58¢ $203 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 44¢ $102 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 26¢ $41 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 86¢ $119 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 36¢ $102 2h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 34¢ $102 2h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 66¢ $202 2h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 35¢ $102 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 20¢ $31 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 60¢ $51 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 50¢ $102 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 70¢ $202 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 12¢ $4 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 12¢ $5 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 66¢ $101 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 64¢ $101 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 66¢ $111 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 71¢ $101 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $102 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $402 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $300 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 61¢ $243 11d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Farés Ziam 28¢ $46 14d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main SELL Bryce Mitchell 100¢ $197 14d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 61¢ $121 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.38 · official $544.38 (match) · 402 history records