Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb77…fd74 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$288 (-13%) realized −$288 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%19W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$602
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -21.7% -29.1% 48% 48% -26.0%
≤30d 21 -21.7% -29.1% 48% 48% -26.0%
≤90d 49 -34.0% -40.3% 39% 35% -33.4%
all 49 -34.0% -40.3% 39% 35% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.3% 35% -33.4%
10% -46.0% 29% -39.7%
15% -51.2% 24% -45.6%
20% -56.0% 18% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$39 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$288
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses19 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage37d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $179 −$175 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $155 +$118 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$42 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $119 +$96 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$49 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $145 +$125 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$86 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $154 −$117 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $111 +$24 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$50 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $33 +$31 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 15 $24 +$19 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 15 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET May 15 $26 −$17 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 15 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1PM ET May 13 $42 −$28 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 13 $41 +$27 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 13 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 13 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 13 $26 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 13 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 13 $100 −$78 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $68 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $108 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $107 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $53 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records