Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb7b…027c sports 256 markets active 17h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-7%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%104W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$9
14 days−$16
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$25
other 15% −$2
crypto 15% −$13
weather 6% +$1
politics 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -17.8% -25.7% 37% 33% -18.8%
≤30d 230 -12.9% -21.2% 41% 38% -17.6%
≤90d 256 -14.6% -22.7% 41% 38% -18.4%
all 256 -14.6% -22.7% 41% 38% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 38% -18.4%
10% -30.1% 34% -26.2%
15% -36.8% 30% -33.3%
20% -43.0% 25% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses104 / 152
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage65d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4 $0 -5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +390%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$3 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $2 +$1 +49%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$3 +94%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +59%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +163%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +47%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Set 1 Winner: Tan vs Tararudee Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $4 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 17h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $2 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $4 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 99¢ $2 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 21h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $6 21h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $3 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $2 23h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 44¢ $1 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 64¢ $2 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $1 26h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $1 29h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 48¢ $1 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 34h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $2 36h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 36h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 28¢ $1 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $2 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 552 history records