Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FB 0xfb7e…4ea1 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$385 (-14%) realized −$619 · open +$234

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$452per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$26est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$173

7 days+$278

14 days−$215

30 days−$215

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-31.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+25.7%	+13.7%	100%	100%	+9.4%
≤30d	5	-24.6%	-31.8%	60%	60%	-20.2%
≤90d	5	-24.6%	-31.8%	60%	60%	-20.2%
all	5	-24.6%	-31.8%	60%	60%	-20.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.8%	60%	-20.2%
10%	-38.3%	20%	-27.8%
15%	-44.3%	20%	-34.8%
20%	-49.7%	0%	-41.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$93 vs −$246 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$1,111

Realized−$619

Unrealized+$234

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$26

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage12d

Avg bet$452

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage	Cloud9	51¢	65¢	$877	$1,111	+$234 (+27%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage	Jun 27	$180	+$75	+41%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage	Jun 27	$536	+$99	+18%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner	Jun 25	$611	+$105	+17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$299	−$296	-99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$199	−$197	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage	BUY Cloud9	51¢	$889	8m
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage	SELL DN SOOPers	100¢	$255	12m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage	SELL FlyQuest	100¢	$635	12m
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage	BUY DN SOOPers	70¢	$180	1h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage	BUY FlyQuest	84¢	$536	2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner	BUY Infinite	85¢	$611	2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY G2	61¢	$299	7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Natus Vincere	60¢	$199	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,110.59 · official $1,110.59 (match) · 9 history records