Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb83…3fd2 crypto 25 markets active 9h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-9%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$3
other 24% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -18.6% -26.3% 32% 20% -22.5%
≤30d 25 -18.6% -26.3% 32% 20% -22.5%
≤90d 25 -18.6% -26.3% 32% 20% -22.5%
all 25 -18.6% -26.3% 32% 20% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 20% -22.5%
10% -33.4% 8% -29.9%
15% -39.8% 8% -36.7%
20% -45.7% 8% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records