Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfb84…1e5b sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$331 (+12%) realized +$361 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$328
7 days+$430
14 days+$508
30 days+$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$100
other 19% +$591
world 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +27.0% +14.9% 42% 39% +5.6%
≤30d 40 +32.0% +19.4% 45% 42% +7.9%
≤90d 40 +32.0% +19.4% 45% 42% +7.9%
all 40 +32.0% +19.4% 45% 42% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.4% 42% +7.9%
10% +8.0% 42% -2.4%
15% -2.5% 40% -11.8%
20% -12.0% 35% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$40 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$361
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage8d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 36¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $369 +$184 +50%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$111 +543%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $85 −$83 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 +$171 +67%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $61 +$62 +101%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $31 +$242 +785%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $317 −$313 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $87 −$86 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $275 +$180 +66%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$52 +103%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$35 +172%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $94 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$48 +468%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $37 +$9 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $24 +$12 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $226 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$4 -10%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$27 +260%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$49 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $106 +$84 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 +$35 +158%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$28 +139%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $44 +$50 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $552 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $369 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 36¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 71¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $74 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 24h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $20 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 28h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $317 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $30 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $87 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $84 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 68¢ $371 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $152 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 47¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 83 history records