Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb84…5fb5 sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15,139 (+10%) realized +$7,005 · open +$8,134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,279per market
Trades / day82.2pace
Fees−$2,090est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$44,879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$26,674
world 4% −$5,170
other 0% +$469
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +2.6% -7.1% 39% 37% +2.2%
≤30d 38 +2.6% -7.1% 39% 37% +2.2%
≤90d 38 +2.6% -7.1% 39% 37% +2.2%
all 38 +2.6% -7.1% 39% 37% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 37% +2.2%
10% -16.0% 37% -7.6%
15% ← realistic here -24.1% 37% -16.5%
20% -31.6% 37% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$3,116) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,041 vs −$2,034 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$44,879
Realized+$7,005
Unrealized+$8,134
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2,090
Open positions6
Markets (closed)38 / 44
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3,279
Trades / day82.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 52¢ $16,955 $17,820 +$865 (+5%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $7,316 $14,625 +$7,309 (+100%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 48¢ $6,813 $6,742 −$71 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 54¢ $4,321 $4,594 +$273 (+6%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 46¢ 38¢ $1,294 $1,055 −$239 (-18%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 59¢ 56¢ $47 $44 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $12,114 +$13,019 +108%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,294 +$1,520 +117%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,336 +$1,507 +113%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5,990 −$5,974 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $132 −$130 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $22,059 +$18,943 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2,843 +$2,989 +105%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $141 +$206 +146%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5,438 +$7,354 +135%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $245 −$7 -3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,170 −$5,170 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,800 −$3,800 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $195 +$633 +325%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $16,424 −$16,200 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4,480 −$4,418 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,733 +$1,565 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,810 +$3,880 +138%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $667 −$667 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4,188 +$362 +9%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $140 −$140 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $266 −$262 -99%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $144 −$141 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $144 −$141 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $276 −$272 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $141 −$140 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $269 −$263 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3,119 −$3,116 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $140 −$140 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,174 −$198 -17%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $90 +$98 +109%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2,704 +$3,339 +124%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,427 +$4,391 +308%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $264 +$814 +308%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,383 −$2,383 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,748 −$1,748 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $302 −$301 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $1,185 −$1,159 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $7,426 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $6,919 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $136 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $32 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $263 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $376 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $142 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $9 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $85 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $8 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $8 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $21 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $67 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $39 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $685 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $61 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $26 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $5 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $8 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $508 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $5,514 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44,879.08 · official $44,835.69 (match) · 438 history records