Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb85…5403
sports · 77 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$116 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$8
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses48 / 28
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage59d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 1 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$50
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 80¢ 64¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 51¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 58¢ $242 $0 −$242 (-100%)
Bruins vs. Sabres Sabres 55¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 63¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $17 $0 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 −$6 -29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 +$21 +156%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $11 +$3 +23%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET Jun 08 $98 −$43 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 08 $118 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $55 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$12 +40%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $37 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$5 +19%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $35 −$6 -16%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 07 $28 +$6 +23%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $36 −$8 -22%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $60 +$3 +5%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 06 $29 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4AM ET Jun 06 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 29 $11 −$10 -99%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 29 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: regain vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - ESL Challenger League N Apr 29 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $245 −$242 -99%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 19 $621 −$160 -26%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton Apr 19 $1,195 −$42 -4%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 19 $332 +$125 +38%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 19 $256 +$76 +30%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 19 $200 +$56 +28%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 19 $200 +$12 +6%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $145 +$55 +38%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 19 $268 −$61 -23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $162 +$47 +29%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 18 $170 −$7 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% +$67
crypto 10% −$25
other 3% +$18
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 80¢ $9 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 100¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 74¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $14 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 48¢ $14 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 66¢ $20 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $20 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 70¢ $15 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 2d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Nuno Borges 81¢ $14 2d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 65¢ $11 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli SELL Jesper de Jong 99¢ $11 3d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Jesper de Jong 89¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -4.2% -13.4% 50% 41% -19.4%
≤30d 36 -1.0% -10.5% 58% 47% -11.7%
≤90d 76 -1.6% -11.0% 63% 43% -8.8%
all 76 -1.6% -11.0% 63% 43% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 43% -8.8%
10% -19.5% 24% -17.5%
15% -27.3% 12% -25.5%
20% -34.4% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.54 · official $7.54 (match) · 204 history records