Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfb87…f53d crypto 1399 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,215 (-27%) realized −$2,212 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%787W / 608L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day123.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$0
14 days−$113
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$295
weather 0% −$4
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 -0.4% -9.9% 59% 54% -9.5%
≤30d 1395 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 49% -12.8%
≤90d 1395 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 49% -12.8%
all 1395 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 49% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 49% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 28% -21.2%
15% -28.9% 14% -28.8%
20% -35.9% 10% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2,212
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses787 / 608
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1395 / 1399
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day123.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Yes 52¢ 99¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+90%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$3 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$3 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$3 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$5 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -42%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -52%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $7 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.03 · official $5.03 (match) · 3500 history records