Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FB 0xfb87…3d70 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,423 (+7%) realized +$1,429 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$516per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$3,162
other 29% +$1,586
crypto 8% −$307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 43% -1.7%
≤30d 34 -3.7% -12.8% 50% 47% +11.5%
≤90d 34 -3.7% -12.8% 50% 47% +11.5%
all 36 +0.7% -8.8% 53% 47% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 47% +11.5%
10% -17.6% 47% +0.8%
15% -25.5% 44% -8.9%
20% -32.8% 39% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$533) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$526 vs −$326 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$574
Realized+$1,429
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage108d
Avg bet$516
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $450 $446 −$4 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $130 $127 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $1,019 +$1,642 +161%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $265 −$260 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $355 +$374 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $609 +$580 +95%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $383 +$1,076 +281%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $506 +$129 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $456 +$249 +55%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $497 −$490 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $354 −$354 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $514 −$514 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $533 −$533 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $535 −$535 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 17 $257 −$257 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $700 −$700 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 17 $257 −$257 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 17 $257 −$257 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $345 −$345 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $356 −$356 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $407 +$469 +115%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $324 +$237 +73%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $255 +$554 +217%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $371 +$333 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,008 +$625 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $408 +$147 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $295 +$161 +55%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $311 +$340 +109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $257 +$16 +6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $4,986 +$2,510 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 04 $100 +$151 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 04 $550 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $133 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $455 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $265 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $1,019 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $355 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 6¢ $360 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 99¢ $1,189 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 50¢ $609 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $635 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $323 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $456 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $497 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 26¢ $383 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $623 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $204 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $203 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $356 3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $324 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $345 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $514 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $371 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 31¢ $255 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1,008 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $276 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.54 · official $573.54 (match) · 83 history records