Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb88…171b
sports · 500 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$174
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses434 / 40
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions25
Markets (closed)474 / 500
History coverage25d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day54.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 25 History 474 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$36
14 days−$27
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? No 94¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? No 94¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? No 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Under 94¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? No 94¢ 93¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 95¢ 96¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? No 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Côte dIvoire 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 95¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $9 −$3 -29%
Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -34%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 14 $5 $0 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$2 -36%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 27% +$14
other 21% −$14
politics 16% −$38
crypto 10% +$17
world 9% +$10
weather 9% −$7
tech 3% −$2
finance 3% +$1
culture 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $5 8m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $7 53m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $4 55m
Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 99¢ $5 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 58m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $5 58m
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 64¢ $6 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 96¢ $5 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $4 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $5 5h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? BUY No 94¢ $5 6h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? BUY No 94¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 6h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY No 94¢ $5 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 7h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 +0.1% -9.4% 92% 1% -11.3%
≤30d 474 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 1% -9.9%
≤90d 474 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 1% -9.9%
all 474 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 1% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.93 · official $173.78 (match) · 1556 history records