Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:59:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfb89…3fad other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$634 (-19%) realized −$634 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$287
other 22% −$348
politics 11% $0
weather 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 6 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.6%
all 14 -16.6% -24.6% 57% 0% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 0% -27.0%
10% -31.8% 0% -34.0%
15% -38.4% 0% -40.4%
20% -44.4% 0% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$110 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$634
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage233d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? May 10 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 26 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 12? Apr 11 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 2? Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $359 −$359 -100%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 02 $356 $0 -0%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Army Black Knights Dec 02 $193 −$5 -2%
Kings vs. Nuggets Nov 23 $741 −$261 -35%
Will FC Utrecht vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Nov 06 $313 −$34 -11%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Nov 04 $365 +$8 +2%
Will SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Nov 04 $412 +$5 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 04 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 59d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 59d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $103 74d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 12? SELL No 100¢ $103 75d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 12? BUY No 99¢ $103 75d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 82d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 82d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 83d
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 63¢ $156 197d
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 63¢ $147 197d
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 63¢ $56 197d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect SELL Yes 66¢ $329 204d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect SELL Yes 66¢ $22 204d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect SELL Yes 66¢ $6 204d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect BUY Yes 66¢ $356 204d
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Army Black Knights SELL George Washington Revolutionaries 94¢ $0 204d
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Army Black Knights SELL George Washington Revolutionaries 94¢ $67 204d
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Army Black Knights SELL George Washington Revolutionaries 94¢ $113 204d
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Army Black Knights SELL George Washington Revolutionaries 94¢ $8 204d
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Army Black Knights BUY George Washington Revolutionaries 96¢ $193 204d
Kings vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 3¢ $11 214d
Kings vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 83¢ $290 214d
Kings vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 87¢ $133 214d
Kings vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 87¢ $43 214d
Kings vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 87¢ $100 214d
Kings vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 87¢ $20 214d
Kings vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 85¢ $289 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.02 · official $40.02 (match) · 61 history records