Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb8b…074c
politics · 13 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$746 -87%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$746 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$746
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage186d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 2 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Red Wings vs. Flames Flames 50¢ 0¢ $725 $0 −$725 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 27 $41 −$20 -50%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 13 $18 $0 -0%
Red Wings vs. Flames Dec 10 $725 −$725 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% −$745
politics 9% $0
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 106d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $20 106d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 108d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 108d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 110d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 110d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 110d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $5 110d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $5 172d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $5 172d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 172d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 172d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 172d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 172d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $10 181d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $10 181d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 181d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 183d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $18 183d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $18 185d
Red Wings vs. Flames BUY Flames 50¢ $60 186d
Red Wings vs. Flames BUY Flames 50¢ $665 186d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 11 -18.5% -26.2% 0% 0% -90.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 0% -90.6%
10% -33.3% 0% -91.5%
15% -39.7% 0% -92.3%
20% -45.6% 0% -93.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.98 · official $9.98 (match) · 98 history records