Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfb8b…37e0 sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$109 (+1%) realized +$87 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%43W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$208
14 days+$202
30 days+$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$407
other 22% −$236
weather 3% +$27
crypto 2% −$86
world 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -26.4% -33.4% 59% 31% -4.9%
≤30d 60 -29.4% -36.1% 57% 32% -6.5%
≤90d 75 -19.5% -27.1% 57% 37% -8.2%
all 75 -19.5% -27.1% 57% 37% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 37% -8.2%
10% -34.1% 23% -17.0%
15% -40.5% 15% -25.0%
20% -46.3% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$570
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses43 / 32
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)75 / 78
History coverage51d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026? No 70¢ 73¢ $530 $552 +$23 (+4%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
France to win the second half? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $25 +$5 +21%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 +$16 +62%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $50 +$10 +20%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $401 +$38 +10%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $61 +$23 +38%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $415 +$26 +6%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$12 +76%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $401 +$27 +7%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 −$2 -40%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $401 +$20 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $418 +$23 +5%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $40 +$20 +50%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $401 +$24 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $406 +$25 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $392 +$48 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $401 +$20 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -98%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $404 +$26 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 +$10 +42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $420 +$32 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $404 +$14 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $427 +$28 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $9 +$2 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $111 +$9 +8%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $60 +$3 +6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $150 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$11 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 39m
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 54m
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 55m
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 82¢ $25 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $50 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $401 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $61 23h
Belgium to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $415 26h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 26h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 8¢ $3 39h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $5 39h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 39h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $401 40h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 47h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 47h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $401 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $418 2d
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $414 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.87 · official $569.87 (match) · 193 history records