Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb8d…821a
weather · 75 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$77
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions32
Markets (closed)43 / 75
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 32 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Yes 16¢ 100¢ $3 $19 +$16 (+525%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $3 $17 +$14 (+461%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? No 52¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+92%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 54¢ 83¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 25¢ 99¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+298%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? No 90¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 93¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 93¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 73¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 +$7 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% +$2
world 6% $0
sports 2% −$3
politics 1% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 3h
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 59¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 4h
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 82¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 52¢ $3 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 93¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -13.6% -21.9% 51% 28% -20.0%
≤30d 43 -13.6% -21.9% 51% 28% -20.0%
≤90d 43 -13.6% -21.9% 51% 28% -20.0%
all 43 -13.6% -21.9% 51% 28% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 28% -20.0%
10% -29.3% 21% -27.6%
15% -36.2% 16% -34.6%
20% -42.4% 16% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.22 · official $77.22 (match) · 106 history records