Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb8f…9166
crypto · 669 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,108 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,104 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$62
Realized−$2,104
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses297 / 365
Est. fees paid−$188
Open positions7
Markets (closed)662 / 669
History coverage101d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 7 History 662 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days−$1,962
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 82¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Under 82¢ 66¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 37¢ 30¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Under 79¢ 58¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group A MARKandLARRY 35¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+184%)
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Playoffs Betclic Apogee Esports 0¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) struggletony 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar Alex Michelsen 23¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 28? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Team Falcons 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Phoenix Mercury 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage KOLESIE 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$1 -13%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$12 -30%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$16 -40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$4 +15%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $81 +$81 +100%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $10 +$15 +152%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $61 −$25 -40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $41 −$17 -42%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$2 -22%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$31 +153%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $20 +$6 +30%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +146%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $20 −$8 -41%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 −$5 -23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$15 +152%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$10 -49%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $51 +$187 +365%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 29? May 29 $104 −$91 -88%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading May 29 $100 −$12 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on May 29? May 29 $104 −$84 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 28 $53 −$50 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6PM ET May 28 $107 −$100 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $107 −$100 -94%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $102 +$409 +399%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $107 −$107 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $214 −$214 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 47% −$2,220
sports 42% +$1,025
other 6% −$297
weather 3% −$448
finance 1% −$75
world 1% −$43
tech 0% −$104
politics 0% +$34
culture 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $10 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 82¢ $10 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 6h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) BUY struggletony 50¢ $10 7h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 77¢ $9 8h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 21¢ $9 8h
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $10 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 48¢ $8 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 51¢ $14 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $12 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 3¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 38¢ $9 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 12¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 10¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 39¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 28¢ $9 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 30¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 28¢ $11 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 41¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +54.3% +39.6% 36% 30% -3.4%
≤30d 422 -9.0% -17.6% 32% 27% -18.8%
≤90d 435 -8.4% -17.2% 32% 27% -18.6%
all 662 -8.6% -17.3% 45% 24% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 24% -17.7%
10% -25.2% 21% -25.6%
15% -32.5% 18% -32.8%
20% -39.1% 15% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.37 · official $61.72 (match) · 2496 history records