Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:51:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FB 0xfb91…c5bc politics 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$183 (-14%) realized −$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip
Net edge+58%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$65
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$147
finance 46% −$90
other 2% +$51
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+57.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +188.5% +161.0% 75% 75% +189.2%
≤30d 4 +188.5% +161.0% 75% 75% +189.2%
≤90d 4 +188.5% +161.0% 75% 75% +189.2%
all 10 +74.3% +57.7% 50% 50% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.7% 50% -22.1%
10% +42.6% 50% -29.6%
15% +28.9% 50% -36.4%
20% +16.2% 50% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +220% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$95 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage149d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$36 +442%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$14 +166%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$20 +246%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 04 $12 +$29 +233%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? Jan 26 $350 −$350 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? Jan 26 $600 −$90 -15%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 15 Jan 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 25 $277 +$197 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records