Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb98…1fd6 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$21
politics 24% −$10
sports 11% +$51
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 127 +3.2% -6.6% 11% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 5% -9.5%
10% -15.6% 3% -18.1%
15% -23.7% 3% -26.0%
20% -31.2% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage131d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $842 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $295 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $228 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $257 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $278 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $289 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $315 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $288 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $238 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $238 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $298 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $273 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $287 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $301 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $259 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $319 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $277 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $232 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $292 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $315 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $253 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $481 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $241 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 7h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 9h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 9h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 33h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 33h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $42 14d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 14d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $295 22d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $295 26d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $228 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $228 29d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $221 29d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $221 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $305 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $305 30d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $241 30d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $241 31d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $257 32d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $257 32d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $278 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.99 · official $46.99 (match) · 371 history records