Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb9a…33ca crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized +$12 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$14
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 40% −$22
crypto 32% −$25
other 21% +$14
sports 6% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -18.8% -26.5% 21% 21% -10.6%
≤30d 39 -20.9% -28.4% 21% 21% -18.9%
≤90d 39 -20.9% -28.4% 21% 21% -18.9%
all 39 -20.9% -28.4% 21% 21% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 21% -18.9%
10% -35.3% 21% -26.6%
15% -41.5% 21% -33.7%
20% -47.3% 18% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)39 / 54
History coverage7d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Yes 44¢ 56¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+28%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +234%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 −$27 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$19 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +201%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $22 −$11 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$33 +619%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$16 +188%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 48¢ $9 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.35 · official $46.35 (match) · 146 history records