Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:55:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfb9e…11d4 crypto 1273 markets active 5h ago coverage 358d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,128 (-2%) realized −$2,187 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate52%663W / 603L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$308
14 days+$349
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$2,833
world 5% +$705
other 4% −$165
politics 3% −$75
sports 2% +$132
tech 1% −$247
finance 0% +$6
economics 0% −$10
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -2.9% -12.1% 57% 50% +15.4%
≤30d 162 -29.2% -36.0% 39% 34% -6.3%
≤90d 229 -17.6% -25.5% 42% 35% -0.7%
all 1266 -14.8% -22.9% 52% 32% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 32% -11.2%
10% -30.3% 24% -19.7%
15% -37.0% 19% -27.5%
20% -43.2% 15% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$28 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

358d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$2,187
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses663 / 603
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1266 / 1273
History coverage358d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 40¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 63¢ 84¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 76¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 59¢ 77¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+30%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 51¢ 66¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+28%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 54¢ 67¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? No 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 460 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $51 +$13 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $101 +$3 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $23 −$22 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$15 +147%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 20 $51 +$19 +36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 20 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 20 $191 −$43 -23%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $5 −$4 -73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $6 −$4 -62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$12 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$7 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 18 $104 +$99 +96%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 18 $131 +$56 +43%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $124 +$93 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +61%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $52 +$87 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$15 +58%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 15 $74 +$51 +70%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $102 +$33 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 13 $67 +$35 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$23 +368%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$8 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$20 +44%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $63 +$65 +103%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$10 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? SELL No 86¢ $65 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? SELL No 96¢ $103 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 66¢ $51 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $101 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 49¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 39¢ $5 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 30¢ $2 19h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $20 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 51¢ $25 19h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $5 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 50¢ $21 32h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $30 32h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 79¢ $26 41h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $90 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL No 91¢ $70 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $2 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $25 2d
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 87¢ $35 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $94 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $10 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 59¢ $25 3d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.50 · official $295.50 (match) · 3113 history records