Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfba2…97c1
crypto · 720 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$130 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$129 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$270
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses371 / 293
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions72
Markets (closed)664 / 720
History coverage44d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day63.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 72 History 664 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$6
14 days−$68
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 90¢ 99¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 82¢ 93¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 79¢ 84¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 61¢ 90¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+48%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $21 $9 −$12 (-59%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 51¢ 77¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+51%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 67¢ 88¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 85¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 30¢ 39¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 66¢ 98¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+48%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 87¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 81¢ 85¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$9 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$6 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $11 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +51%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$4 +56%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $3 +$4 +130%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $2 $0 +5%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -10%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -79%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 03 $4 $0 -4%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -72%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $15 +$4 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 49% −$1
sports 28% −$115
world 8% −$36
other 5% −$5
finance 3% +$18
tech 3% +$12
politics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 21m
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 21m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 24m
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 29m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 31m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 36m
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 36m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 37m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 37m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 38m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 41m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 41m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 42m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 50m
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 51m
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 51m
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 51m
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 51m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 54m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -3.1% -12.3% 73% 24% -12.5%
≤30d 368 -0.5% -9.9% 60% 40% -13.0%
≤90d 664 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 40% -12.4%
all 664 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 40% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 40% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 34% -20.7%
15% -28.4% 29% -28.4%
20% -35.4% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.36 · official $270.25 (match) · 3500 history records