Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbad…9e4b other 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,581 (-4%) realized −$6,533 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%65W / 170L
Whale WR16%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$667per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$1,215est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$76
14 days−$60
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$4,097
sports 24% −$1,385
politics 10% −$353
other 10% −$619
finance 2% −$101
crypto 0% −$89
tech 0% −$12
economics 0% −$43
culture 0% −$29
weather 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -16.5% -24.4% 33% 0% -21.9%
≤30d 46 -16.7% -24.6% 39% 9% -12.6%
≤90d 223 +12.5% +1.7% 26% 4% -13.1%
all 235 +10.6% +0.1% 28% 5% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 5% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -21.5%
15% -18.3% 3% -29.1%
20% -26.3% 3% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 16% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$47 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$756
Realized−$6,533
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses65 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)16%
Est. fees paid−$1,215
Open positions15
Markets (closed)235 / 250
History coverage228d
Avg bet$667
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $167 $167 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $147 $146 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $111 $96 −$15 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $42 $45 +$3 (+7%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 81¢ 81¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? No 63¢ 32¢ $32 $16 −$16 (-50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 10¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? No 15¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? No $9 $1 −$8 (-88%)
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-82%)
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close on IPO day? Yes 34¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 23 $14 −$5 -35%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 22 $125 −$47 -38%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 21 $54 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $99 $0 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 20 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 17 $62 −$10 -17%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 16 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 15 $38 −$26 -68%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $30 +$20 +70%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $60 +$40 +68%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 10 $24 −$3 -13%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $21 +$7 +33%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 05 $20 $0 +2%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 04 $18 −$8 -44%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by less than 10 Jun 04 $19 −$6 -32%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3 Jun 04 $67 −$12 -18%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Innio's market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IP Jun 03 $14 −$2 -15%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 03 $78 −$6 -8%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c Jun 03 $27 −$3 -13%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.25B and $2.5B at marke Jun 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? May 31 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close May 31 $5 −$5 -93%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $100 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 30 $20 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $198 +$2 +1%
Trump on $250 bill this year? May 30 $4 $0 -4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? May 30 $38 +$1 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? May 30 $98 −$1 -1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? May 30 $20 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $198 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? May 27 $36 −$4 -10%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 26 $174 +$12 +7%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $49 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 26 $667 −$24 -4%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 26 $63 +$27 +42%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 18 $99 +$8 +8%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May? May 15 $175 −$20 -12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 15 $486 −$93 -19%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? May 15 $57 −$32 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY No 15¢ $5 41m
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY No 15¢ $2 41m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Ju BUY No 63¢ $32 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 81¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $151 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $43 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $49 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $114 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $123 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $171 1h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY No $4 7h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY Yes 89¢ $44 14h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL No 22¢ $11 16h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 12¢ $18 17h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes $5 18h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY No $4 22h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 92¢ $46 27h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 96¢ $0 30h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No $0 30h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 22¢ $11 30h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 12¢ $6 42h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 91¢ $46 2d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 55¢ $55 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 2d
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 71¢ $36 3d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 57¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $756.31 · official $756.07 (match) · 3107 history records