Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbad…4f53 sports 859 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,440 (-3%) realized −$2,303 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%365W / 492L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$659est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$28
14 days+$0
30 days−$2,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$2,537
other 24% +$62
crypto 0% −$24
world 0% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +11.8% +1.1% 51% 44% -5.8%
≤30d 291 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 38% -15.0%
≤90d 857 -6.7% -15.6% 43% 37% -13.5%
all 857 -6.7% -15.6% 43% 37% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 37% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 31% -21.8%
15% -31.1% 25% -29.3%
20% -37.8% 20% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$25 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$2,303
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses365 / 492
Est. fees paid−$659
Open positions2
Markets (closed)857 / 859
History coverage62d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 857 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will US Lecce vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 15¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-09? Yes 70¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce Mattia Bellucci 28¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 FC Bayern München? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Vegalta Sendai end in a draw? Yes 48¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Antonia Ruzic vs Mirra Andreeva Antonia Ruzic $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Kimberly Birrell vs Yue Yuan Kimberly Birrell 37¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw? Yes 25¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean Leolia Jeanjean $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-30? Yes 27¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 28¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 23¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 17¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-05-16? Yes 18¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 18¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanov Karen Khachanov 55¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? Yes 23¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 55¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-10? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Rinky Hijikata Mackenzie McDonald 18¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Chisinau: Lorenzo Giustino vs Luca Nardi Lorenzo Giustino 32¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 −$18 -49%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $36 +$63 +176%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $20 +$24 +115%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $30 +$9 +30%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $15 +$5 +32%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $81 −$10 -12%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $20 +$23 +112%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$10 -20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $16 +$10 +59%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$4 -18%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 +$62 +220%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$33 +649%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $54 −$14 -25%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $56 +$13 +23%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li Jun 12 $90 −$52 -57%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $81 −$20 -25%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $76 −$62 -82%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $70 +$18 +26%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $72 +$54 +74%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 11 $41 −$32 -78%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $20 −$7 -34%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $10 −$6 -61%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $10 +$6 +54%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $30 +$11 +36%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $142 +$37 +26%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $10 +$6 +63%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $61 −$10 -16%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 06 $184 −$107 -58%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $114 +$19 +16%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Philip Henning Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $102 −$89 -87%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $203 −$50 -25%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 05 $51 −$50 -99%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 05 $51 +$13 +25%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 05 $76 −$36 -48%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 05 $51 +$27 +53%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $78 +$20 +26%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $101 +$51 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 99¢ $44 4m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 6m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 90¢ $40 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $50 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $44 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 3h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 25¢ $5 11h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 71¢ $79 11h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron SELL Rinky Hijikata 71¢ $31 11h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Rinky Hijikata 67¢ $15 12h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 23¢ $15 12h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Rinky Hijikata 68¢ $15 12h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 92¢ $25 12h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 32¢ $15 12h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 37¢ $10 12h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 60¢ $19 13h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 31¢ $10 13h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili SELL Nikoloz Basilashvili 63¢ $40 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.81 · official $27.81 (match) · 2121 history records