Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbae…cd66 sports 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$216 (-26%) realized −$218 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%30W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$76
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$95
other 21% −$113
crypto 4% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -35.8% -41.9% 21% 21% -21.6%
≤30d 101 -27.8% -34.7% 23% 23% -14.9%
≤90d 112 -18.3% -26.1% 27% 27% -13.6%
all 112 -18.3% -26.1% 27% 27% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 27% -13.6%
10% -33.2% 25% -21.9%
15% -39.6% 25% -29.4%
20% -45.6% 24% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$218
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses30 / 82
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 123
History coverage77d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+375%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $15 +$108 +704%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 21 $4 −$3 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $14 +$12 +83%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 +$9 +172%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 +$9 +442%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$21 +206%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 +$19 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $124 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $10 5h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $4 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 12¢ $15 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $15 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 28¢ $15 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $14 27h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 46h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? AND Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Pa BUY 3¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Moro BUY 19¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $5 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Pa BUY 3¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Will Mexico vs BUY 6¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.94 · official $2.94 (match) · 274 history records