Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbb2…360f crypto 212 markets active 2h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,027 (-3%) realized −$1,025 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate72%151W / 60L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$146
14 days−$134
30 days−$810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$875
politics 1% $0
sports 1% −$287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -10.4% -19.0% 67% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 77 -7.9% -16.6% 61% 10% -15.1%
≤90d 186 -4.6% -13.7% 73% 15% -11.9%
all 211 -5.4% -14.4% 72% 13% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 13% -12.2%
10% -22.6% 4% -20.6%
15% -30.1% 2% -28.2%
20% -36.9% 1% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$43 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$1,025
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses151 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage610d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $142 $140 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $140 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $207 −$25 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $90 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $39 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $153 +$9 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $142 +$8 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $365 −$91 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $211 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $70 −$56 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $553 −$15 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $287 +$13 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $153 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $105 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $68 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +197%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $66 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $125 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $227 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $55 −$15 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $95 +$5 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $106 −$5 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $272 −$12 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $152 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $126 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $74 +$5 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $198 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$3 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$9 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $256 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $347 −$4 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $199 +$10 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $120 +$5 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $285 −$285 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $434 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $442 −$8 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $640 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $244 −$5 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $115 −$32 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $26 −$23 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 97¢ $142 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 98¢ $140 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $140 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $135 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 48¢ $42 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $90 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 76¢ $7 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 81¢ $24 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 94¢ $153 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $152 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 98¢ $150 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $99 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $43 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 94¢ $132 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.09 · official $139.72 (match) · 960 history records