Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FB 0xfbb2…d5e5 crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+7%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate100%10W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.1% -3.1% 100% 30% -3.2%
≤30d 10 +7.1% -3.1% 100% 30% -3.2%
≤90d 10 +7.1% -3.1% 100% 30% -3.2%
all 10 +7.1% -3.1% 100% 30% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 30% -3.2%
10% -12.4% 0% -12.5%
15% -20.9% 0% -20.9%
20% -28.6% 0% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses10 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $144 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $134 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $107 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $125 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $45 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $140 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $59 +$9 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $144 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $107 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $125 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $45 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $140 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $59 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records