Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FB 0xfbba…2153 economics 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$540 (+0%) realized +$540 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$2,640per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$400
7 days+$400
14 days+$400
30 days+$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 29% −$23
politics 27% +$65
world 17% +$500
other 9% −$10
sports 9% −$11
crypto 9% −$20
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% +$11
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.6% -6.2% 33% 17% -8.3%
≤30d 7 +3.1% -6.7% 29% 14% -8.5%
≤90d 11 +2.0% -7.7% 45% 9% -8.9%
all 48 +2.8% -7.0% 44% 19% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 19% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 15% -17.8%
15% -24.0% 12% -25.8%
20% -31.5% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$5,819) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$10 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$540
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage615d
Avg bet$2,640
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $6,112 −$9 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $6,302 −$10 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $6,224 −$10 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 20 $5,901 −$9 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $5,800 +$437 +8%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $5,901 −$9 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 17 $5,890 +$24 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $5,808 −$6 -0%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 25 $5,880 +$6 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 23 $5,857 +$24 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 18 $5,799 −$6 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $5,819 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 18 $4 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 18 $5,833 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 18 $5,600 −$6 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Mar 18 $5,790 +$35 +1%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125 Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Feb 14 $2 +$1 +37%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $5,711 +$34 +1%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 13 $8,319 −$8 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 13 $5,829 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 13 $2 +$3 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 10 $5,808 +$35 +1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 05 $5,813 −$6 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Feb 05 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Feb 05 $3 +$11 +354%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Feb 05 $10 +$4 +40%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $1,289 +$3 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 27 $559 −$6 -1%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Jul 17 $40 +$1 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jul 17 $41 +$48 +117%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $91 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? Apr 18 $33 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Apr 18 $20 +$13 +67%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Mar 09 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Mar 09 $51 +$7 +14%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Dec 21 $60 −$9 -14%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Nov 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $384 +$88 +23%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 29 $200 −$35 -17%
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D House Oct 18 $210 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6,103 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6,112 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6,209 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6,223 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6,292 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6,302 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $6,214 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6,224 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5,800 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $5,888 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $5,901 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5,893 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5,901 25d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $5,890 56d
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,880 89d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $5,857 94d
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,790 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $5,790 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $5,799 126d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 126d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $5,583 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5,600 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $5,817 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5,833 126d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? BUY Up 52¢ $1 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 126d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 126d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,711 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.48 · official $15.48 (match) · 121 history records