Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FB 0xfbbb…95dd crypto 151 markets active 2d ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$230 (+16%) realized +$239 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%76W / 62L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$114
14 days+$115
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$39
other 16% +$66
sports 9% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -0.0% -9.6% 78% 68% +7.9%
≤30d 125 -7.1% -15.9% 58% 50% +1.7%
≤90d 138 -2.6% -11.9% 55% 48% +4.0%
all 138 -2.6% -11.9% 55% 48% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 48% +4.0%
10% -20.3% 37% -6.0%
15% -28.0% 24% -15.1%
20% -35.1% 16% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses76 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)138 / 151
History coverage132d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +43%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $71 +$119 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 25 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 22 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 22 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 22 $34 +$10 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.99 · official $53.99 (match) · 627 history records