Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbc0…7a60 world 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate29%26W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$5
politics 24% −$3
other 21% −$1
sports 9% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 +19.3% +7.9% 27% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 72 +6.8% -3.3% 32% 1% -9.6%
all 90 +5.0% -5.0% 29% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 1% -9.6%
10% -14.1% 1% -18.3%
15% -22.4% 1% -26.2%
20% -30.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses26 / 64
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage340d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $139 −$3 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $253 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $139 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $24 +$2 +6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $56 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $152 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $138 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $161 −$7 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $147 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $196 +$3 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $73 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $4 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $146 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $303 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $143 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $81 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $316 +$12 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $127 −$13 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $161 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $171 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $158 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $166 +$2 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $311 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $146 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $314 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $174 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $146 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $146 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $482 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $159 +$1 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $159 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 13 $145 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $145 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $311 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $159 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $137 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $136 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $139 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $154 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $154 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $139 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $135 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $47 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $56 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $152 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $152 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $67 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $33 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $91 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $47 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $94 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $44 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $25 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $26 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $28 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $62 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $90 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.97 · official $136.74 (match) · 400 history records