Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfbc4…b2f8 sports 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$773 (+2%) realized +$775 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%94W / 93L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$46
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$789
other 9% −$133
world 1% +$75
finance 1% −$8
politics 0% −$4
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 38% +11.3%
≤30d 15 +2.9% -6.9% 47% 40% +4.1%
≤90d 95 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 39% -10.8%
all 187 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 43% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 43% -7.6%
10% -20.4% 28% -16.4%
15% -28.1% 22% -24.5%
20% -35.2% 16% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$38 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$775
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses94 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)187 / 189
History coverage210d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $43 +$45 +105%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $26 +$17 +67%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 $0 +6%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $53 −$30 -56%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $29 +$30 +105%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $41 −$13 -31%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $33 +$9 +27%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 −$4 -12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$4 -13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$17 -34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $72 +$38 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $49 −$2 -4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $22 −$15 -70%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $53 −$31 -59%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 May 23 $74 −$20 -27%
SK Sigma Olomouc vs. MFK Karviná: O/U 1.5 May 23 $61 +$13 +21%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 21 $21 +$10 +48%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $24 +$27 +114%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $34 −$10 -29%
IK Start vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 2.5 May 20 $47 −$14 -29%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $41 +$4 +9%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $20 +$4 +18%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 18 $21 +$19 +89%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 May 17 $85 −$64 -75%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $169 −$69 -41%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $173 −$4 -2%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $237 −$65 -27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $13 +$9 +73%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $224 −$8 -4%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 May 15 $4 +$9 +206%
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC: O/U 3.5 May 14 $18 −$14 -78%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 May 13 $28 −$9 -34%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 May 12 $17 +$11 +64%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 May 11 $98 −$20 -21%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Renofa Yamaguchi FC vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki: O/U 1.5 May 09 $27 −$24 -89%
Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5 May 08 $50 −$23 -45%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 May 07 $91 +$84 +93%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $38 −$29 -75%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $44 −$5 -12%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $50 −$6 -12%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5 May 03 $24 +$36 +145%
PEC Zwolle vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 2.5 May 03 $52 −$27 -53%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $43 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes $4 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $23 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $53 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $3 4d
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $2 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $29 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 53¢ $29 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $41 5d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $1 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $33 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $25 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 54¢ $26 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $29 10d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $26 10d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $33 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $72 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 79¢ $47 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $49 14d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 15d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 43¢ $7 33d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 34d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.73 · official $52.73 (match) · 414 history records