Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FB 0xfbc5…ea72 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$18 (-16%) realized +$8 · open −$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%4W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-32.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-25.0%	-32.1%	50%	50%	-30.1%
≤30d	8	-25.0%	-32.1%	50%	50%	-30.1%
≤90d	8	-25.0%	-32.1%	50%	50%	-30.1%
all	8	-25.0%	-32.1%	50%	50%	-30.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.1%	50%	-30.1%
10%	-38.6%	38%	-36.8%
15%	-44.5%	25%	-42.9%
20%	-50.0%	12%	-48.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$4

Realized+$8

Unrealized−$26

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses4 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage2d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	72¢	10¢	$30	$4	−$26 (-87%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$7	−$6	-99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$4	+$3	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$13	−$10	-76%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$13	−$13	-99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$23	+$4	+18%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-81%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$8	+$2	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	72¢	$30	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5	BUY Over	70¢	$7	18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$4	22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	14¢	$3	23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	56¢	$13	23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	70¢	$13	24h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$27	43h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	2¢	$0	43h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5	BUY Over	85¢	$23	43h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	8¢	$2	43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$15	44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$10	44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	80¢	$8	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.