Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:03:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbc6…9092 sports 351 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,106 (-17%) realized −$2,943 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%75W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$337est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days+$308
14 days+$308
30 days−$794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$2,613
crypto 15% −$582
other 2% −$238
world 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -6.6% -15.5% 23% 21% +4.5%
≤30d 203 -17.6% -25.4% 23% 21% -17.0%
≤90d 334 -22.9% -30.2% 22% 21% -26.2%
all 334 -22.9% -30.2% 22% 21% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 21% -26.2%
10% -36.9% 21% -33.2%
15% -43.0% 20% -39.7%
20% -48.6% 19% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$49 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$574
Realized−$2,943
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses75 / 259
Est. fees paid−$337
Open positions17
Markets (closed)334 / 351
History coverage73d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Fabian Marozsan 31¢ 32¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Valerio Aboian 29¢ 57¢ $50 $99 +$49 (+98%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 58¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 96¢ $66 $80 +$14 (+21%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 90¢ 92¢ $76 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $28 $50 +$22 (+78%)
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Nicolas Zanellato Nicolas Zanellato 24¢ 18¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Gabriela Ruse 43¢ 3¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-93%)
Will BRION win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? No 19¢ 0¢ $71 $1 −$70 (-98%)
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MODUS 22¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -94%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Jun 26 $51 +$115 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $51 +$119 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$24 -94%
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$35 -94%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$50 -94%
ITF Alkmaar: Manel Lazaro Juncadella vs Julien Penzlin Jun 26 $20 +$69 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Giannicola Misasi vs George Lazarov Jun 26 $31 +$85 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
ITF Monastir: Lourdes Ayala vs Karla Bartel Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui Jun 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 25 $51 +$243 +473%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $24 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$67 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $59 −$58 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $50 −$46 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$197 +740%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $40 −$38 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Fabian Marozsan 31¢ $102 4m
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Nicolas Zanellato BUY Nicolas Zanellato 24¢ $41 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 11¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 25m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 17¢ $20 29m
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 29¢ $51 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 25¢ $53 31m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 27¢ $1 31m
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu SELL Sumit Nagal 100¢ $166 44m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY MODUS 22¢ $37 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Gabriela Ruse 43¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu BUY Sumit Nagal 30¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $170 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $26 2h
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 49¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 3h
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $574.28 · official $574.31 (match) · 605 history records