Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FB 0xfbc7…f911 sports 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+10%) realized +$41 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%49W / 35L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$37
crypto 9% −$12
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 49% +0.2%
≤30d 84 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 49% +0.2%
≤90d 84 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 49% +0.2%
all 84 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 49% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 49% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 44% -9.3%
15% -21.5% 38% -18.1%
20% -29.2% 29% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses49 / 35
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions20
Markets (closed)84 / 104
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Allura Zamarripa 16¢ 84¢ $4 $22 +$18 (+428%)
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Leo Raquillet 39¢ 100¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+159%)
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Santiago De La Fuente 17¢ 100¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+488%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Tunisia 77¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 45¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+122%)
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Johan Alexander Rodriguez 45¢ 64¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Martyna Kubka 66¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+51%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Martina Trevisan 45¢ 38¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Under 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 19¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 63¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? No 72¢ 54¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 41¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jeline Vandromme 86¢ 16¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? No 67¢ 12¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Aliona Falei 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Paulo Dos Santos 85¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $9 −$4 -48%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $5 −$2 -46%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $2 +$4 +197%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $3 +$4 +140%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
ITF Ystad: Camilla Zanolini vs Sarah Van Emst Jun 16 $8 $0 -5%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $6 +$7 +124%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $5 +$3 +49%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $6 +$3 +42%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $6 +$6 +101%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +87%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $1 +$4 +310%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +158%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +129%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 19¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 63¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $1 5m
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 92¢ $1 36m
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 44¢ $2 36m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 16¢ $1 39m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 86¢ $3 39m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 85¢ $1 40m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 16¢ $1 40m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 16¢ $1 40m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 40m
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 47¢ $2 47m
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 30¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 36¢ $3 1h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 36¢ $3 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 30¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 45¢ $3 1h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 45¢ $3 1h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 63¢ $3 1h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 85¢ $3 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Martyna Kubka 66¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 50¢ $2 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian BUY Alina Korneeva 99¢ $3 1h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 67¢ $2 2h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Leo Raquillet 38¢ $2 2h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Leo Raquillet 39¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.99 · official $96.99 (match) · 267 history records