Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfbc9…e9d3 weather 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$50 (-1%) realized +$173 · open −$223
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%37W / 9L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$2
culture 18% −$18
other 15% −$222
sports 12% +$11
world 9% $0
weather 4% $0
crypto 1% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 23 +0.2% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 45 -2.7% -11.9% 82% 0% -9.6%
all 46 -4.8% -13.8% 80% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -10.4%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$223
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses37 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions9
Markets (closed)46 / 55
History coverage105d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 50¢ 93¢ $258 $481 +$223 (+86%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 50¢ 7¢ $258 $36 −$223 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C or higher on May 3 May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 30? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on May 30? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on May May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on May 28? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 28? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $544 +$6 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 26 $587 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on May 21? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 21? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on May 21? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 21? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 15? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 14? May 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 14? May 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on May 14? May 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 12? May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or below on May 12? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on May 12? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 12? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 28 $550 −$2 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 28 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 28 $9 −$4 -44%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 28 $12 −$6 -46%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 28 $15 −$2 -13%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 28 $559 −$4 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 24? Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 26°C or below on April 24? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on April 24? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $408 +$1 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,058 −$4 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,582 +$2 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $250 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 02 $47 −$47 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 52m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 53m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 56m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 58m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $8 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 16d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C or higher on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $7 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 19d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $8 19d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $6 19d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on May BUY No 100¢ $6 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 37¢ $4 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 37¢ $7 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 37¢ $1 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 37¢ $12 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 37¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $594.04 · official $594.04 (match) · 313 history records