Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbcb…bb5d other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (640 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,656 (+7%) realized +$1,658 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%15W / 194L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$987per market
Trades / day640.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (640 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 -43.0% -48.5% 7% 6% -12.8%
≤30d 209 -43.0% -48.5% 7% 6% -12.8%
≤90d 209 -43.0% -48.5% 7% 6% -12.8%
all 209 -43.0% -48.5% 7% 6% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover640.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.5% 6% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -53.4% 6% -21.1%
15% -57.9% 6% -28.7%
20% -62.0% 6% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -87% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
75.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$25 · ×7.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$1,658
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses15 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)209 / 23
History coverage5d
Avg bet$987
Trades / day640.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 36¢ 36¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 66¢ 66¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$78 +3132%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$24 -212%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$21 +2650%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$24 -157%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$27 +1040%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $29 +$24 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$112 -318%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +228%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $3 8m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $2 10m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $2 11m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $2 20m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $2 24m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $9 42m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $9 43m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $4 44m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $2 50m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $17 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.40 · official $76.40 (match) · 3500 history records