Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbcf…1903 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$1
other 34% +$2
politics 9% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -10.1% -18.6% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -3.3% -12.5% 45% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.3%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -28.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage472d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $24 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -9%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Giants draft Jalen Milroe? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Mar 31 $15 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Mar 19 $1 $0 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 09 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $19 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $9 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $21 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $27 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $28 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $10 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $17 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $20 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $8 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $5 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $22 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records