Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbd0…47c6 weather 242 markets active 2h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%112W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 35% $0
other 29% −$3
crypto 11% −$1
politics 11% −$3
sports 6% −$13
economics 4% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$3
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 28% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 71 -0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 182 -1.7% -11.0% 43% 0% -9.8%
all 238 -4.2% -13.3% 47% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses112 / 126
Open positions4
Markets (closed)238 / 242
History coverage556d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or below on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Jun 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 28? Jun 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? Jun 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27? Jun 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C on June 27? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C or higher on June 27? Jun 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun Jun 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 26? Jun 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 26? Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lindsey Horvath finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gina Viola finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 01 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $11 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 BUY No 100¢ $13 7h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 100¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $9 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $9 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $26 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $13 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $11 25h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $19 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $13 28h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $8 30h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $11 30h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $20 32h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $7 33h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1 33h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $8 35h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $8 39h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $4 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.52 · official $64.52 (match) · 593 history records