Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbd4…194b world 339 markets active 0h ago coverage 242d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,468 (+1%) realized +$3,605 · open +$863
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%190W / 141L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,012per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$10,718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 242d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$3,094
other 31% +$5,126
politics 16% +$560
crypto 5% −$113
economics 3% −$154
sports 2% +$1,198
tech 2% −$592
culture 0% −$1,235
finance 0% −$241
weather 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +9.8% -0.7% 38% 23% -7.2%
≤30d 45 -6.8% -15.7% 51% 29% -14.1%
≤90d 186 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 42% -6.3%
all 331 -4.9% -13.9% 57% 43% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 43% -9.3%
10% -22.2% 30% -18.0%
15% -29.7% 19% -25.9%
20% -36.6% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$910) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$292 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$10,718
Realized+$3,605
Unrealized+$863
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses190 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions10
Markets (closed)331 / 339
History coverage242d
Avg bet$1,012
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $7,737 $8,987 +$1,250 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $760 $905 +$145 (+19%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $425 $500 +$75 (+18%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $251 $123 −$128 (-51%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $150 $80 −$70 (-47%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 36¢ 8¢ $257 $61 −$195 (-76%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $222 $47 −$175 (-79%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $51 $14 −$37 (-73%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 50¢ 98¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+96%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 50¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vance Bostic win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primar Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chi Ossé win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $1,549 −$455 -29%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1,251 +$19 +2%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $165 −$38 -23%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $68 +$39 +56%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $700 −$594 -85%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $191 +$970 +508%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $288 +$278 +96%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2,155 +$142 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $368 −$325 -88%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $260 +$5 +2%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $778 +$87 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1,359 −$599 -44%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $1,313 +$411 +31%
FDA approves Vepdegestrant? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $30 −$30 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $15,275 −$328 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 02 $84 −$13 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2,937 −$970 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $1,020 +$30 +3%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $1,717 −$1,717 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $6,496 +$250 +4%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3,397 +$771 +23%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $2,158 +$915 +42%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 26 $210 −$171 -81%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $29 +$17 +59%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 25 $308 −$47 -15%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 24 $995 −$990 -100%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 23 $683 +$807 +118%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $412 +$13 +3%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 22 $951 +$531 +56%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $400 +$100 +25%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 22 $2,320 −$2,317 -100%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 22 $2,178 −$677 -31%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 21 $318 +$2 +1%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 21 $157 +$5 +3%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 21 $4,696 +$40 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $2,694 +$658 +24%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $2,138 −$528 -25%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 19 $731 +$17 +2%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the nex May 19 $557 +$447 +80%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) May 18 $36 +$9 +26%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $101 +$54 +54%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 17 $1,711 +$202 +12%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $775 +$1,741 +224%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 17 $204 −$104 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 72¢ $324 9m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 72¢ $36 24m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 93¢ $930 32m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 92¢ $301 37m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 92¢ $619 37m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 79¢ $60 49m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 73¢ $309 51m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $735 53m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $461 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $694 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 68¢ $340 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 66¢ $331 7h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $18 15h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $0 15h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $3 15h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $106 15h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 33¢ $165 15h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 36¢ $83 26h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 36¢ $1 29h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 36¢ $1 29h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 36¢ $1 29h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 36¢ $1 29h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 36¢ $1 29h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 36¢ $1 29h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 36¢ $1 29h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 36¢ $1 29h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 36¢ $1 29h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 36¢ $1 29h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 36¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,718.04 · official $10,718.04 (match) · 2026 history records