Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfbd5…e4f3 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized −$116 · open +$74
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$462
7 days−$414
14 days−$414
30 days−$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$147
politics 34% −$307
tech 10% +$41
sports 10% +$78
economics 3% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.6% -18.2% 62% 50% -38.2%
≤30d 10 -6.6% -15.5% 70% 40% -33.8%
≤90d 18 -0.9% -10.3% 78% 50% -21.5%
all 18 -0.9% -10.3% 78% 50% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 50% -21.5%
10% -18.9% 44% -29.0%
15% -26.7% 28% -35.8%
20% -33.9% 6% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$185 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$544
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage39d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 21¢ 36¢ $100 $176 +$76 (+76%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $170 $168 −$2 (-1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade? Jun 21 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $180 −$180 -100%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 21 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $125 +$55 +44%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $90 +$36 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $245 −$155 -63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $158 +$86 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? May 21 $101 +$28 +28%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May? May 21 $101 +$40 +39%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $101 +$33 +33%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $302 +$33 +11%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $101 +$35 +34%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $101 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 87¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $180 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $125 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $90 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $90 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $245 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $158 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $171 17d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY San Francisco Giants 91¢ $100 17d
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 22d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 22d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 85¢ $101 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 21¢ $104 29d
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? SELL No 98¢ $129 31d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 31d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 75¢ $101 33d
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade? BUY No 53¢ $102 35d
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade? BUY No 65¢ $203 36d
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 88¢ $201 37d
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? SELL No 15¢ $104 37d
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 33¢ $103 37d
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 91¢ $105 38d
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL No 87¢ $108 38d
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? BUY No 76¢ $101 38d
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 80¢ $101 38d
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 87¢ $101 38d
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 74¢ $101 38d
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? BUY No 14¢ $103 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $543.52 · official $543.53 (match) · 60 history records