Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfbd5…e689
other · 11 markets active 5h ago
2.5score
+$70 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$71 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$48
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage12d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 6 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C Jun 01 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $83 −$48 -57%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $44 −$5 -12%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 01 $82 +$163 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 74% +$98
other 11% −$1
crypto 9% −$27
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 5h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C SELL Yes $0 11d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid SELL Yes $25 11d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes $31 11d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 78¢ $39 11d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 99¢ $32 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down $27 11d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C BUY Yes $13 11d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $44 11d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 93¢ $30 11d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid SELL Yes $10 11d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 14¢ $52 11d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 85¢ $213 11d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 20¢ $52 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -13.4% -21.7% 20% 20% +16.4%
≤90d 5 -13.4% -21.7% 20% 20% +16.4%
all 5 -13.4% -21.7% 20% 20% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 20% +16.4%
10% -29.2% 20% +5.2%
15% -36.0% 20% -4.9%
20% -42.3% 20% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.62 · official $47.62 (match) · 21 history records