Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfbd8…d03f sports 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 748d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,932 (+4%) realized +$1,932 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate64%56W / 31L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$575per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$471est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$149
14 days−$149
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$986
other 2% −$291
politics 1% −$1
world 0% −$86
crypto 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -24.0% -31.2% 57% 14% -19.6%
≤30d 9 -40.9% -46.5% 44% 11% -29.3%
≤90d 74 -1.6% -11.0% 66% 46% -7.7%
all 87 -1.8% -11.2% 64% 44% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 44% -8.3%
10% -19.7% 36% -17.1%
15% -27.5% 26% -25.1%
20% -34.6% 15% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$900) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$300 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

748d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,932
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses56 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$471
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage748d
Avg bet$575
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $307 +$65 +21%
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $103 −$1 -1%
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $88 +$5 +6%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $304 +$16 +5%
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $302 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 29 $172 −$171 -99%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $66 −$66 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $180 −$180 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $429 +$349 +81%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $395 −$390 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $1,051 −$41 -4%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 26 $84 −$84 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $149 −$149 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs South America Rejects (BO3) - 1win Essence May 26 $540 −$540 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 03 $37 +$49 +135%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 1 Winner May 03 $24 +$13 +53%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 02 $89 +$1 +1%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Fnatic - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $714 +$84 +12%
Dota 2: 1win vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Apr 30 $1,355 +$393 +29%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $477 −$7 -1%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $881 +$34 +4%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Apr 30 $340 +$159 +47%
Dota 2: DOGSENT vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Apr 30 $120 +$80 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $34 +$1 +4%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $1,335 +$663 +50%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $325 +$174 +54%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $297 +$14 +5%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $391 +$224 +57%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Stels - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $1,173 +$22 +2%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $1,198 −$1,008 -84%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Americ Apr 28 $508 −$168 -33%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Play Apr 28 $1,205 −$1,205 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $648 +$158 +24%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $470 −$470 -100%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs South America Rejects (BO3) - DreamLeague Divisio Apr 28 $955 +$272 +28%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $1,102 −$45 -4%
Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs Apr 27 $931 +$301 +32%
Dota 2: Cheeki_Breeki vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 27 $346 +$155 +45%
Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Apr 27 $1,268 +$15 +1%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $540 −$250 -46%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $235 −$235 -100%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner Apr 26 $1,484 +$139 +9%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $628 +$137 +22%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Apr 26 $1,970 +$803 +41%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $741 +$270 +36%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $1,795 +$260 +14%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $292 +$207 +71%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $729 −$729 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $1,510 +$332 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $372 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 82¢ $307 1h
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner SELL Barça eSports 33¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner SELL Barça eSports 33¢ $66 1h
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner SELL Barça eSports 35¢ $30 1h
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner BUY Barça eSports 34¢ $103 2h
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Mandatory 59¢ $14 2h
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Mandatory 59¢ $60 2h
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Mandatory 60¢ $6 2h
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Mandatory 61¢ $14 2h
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Mandatory 56¢ $88 2h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $320 2h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 95¢ $114 3h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 95¢ $95 3h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 95¢ $47 3h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 95¢ $47 3h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner SELL Ilbirs eSports 100¢ $304 4h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 99¢ $187 4h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 99¢ $84 4h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner BUY Ilbirs eSports 95¢ $30 4h
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY summer bear 72¢ $103 8h
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY summer bear 69¢ $70 8h
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 69¢ $66 9h
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $4 27d
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Pipsqueak+4 38¢ $180 27d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $778 33d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 53¢ $68 33d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 53¢ $16 33d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 53¢ $7 33d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 52¢ $302 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 504 history records