Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfbd8…4027
weather · 643 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$71,195 -82%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,726 · open −$85,666
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,498
Realized+$1,726
Unrealized−$85,666
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses21 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions493
Markets (closed)30 / 643
History coverage1d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day2964.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 493 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,726
7 days+$1,726
14 days+$1,726
30 days+$1,726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $30,300 $76 −$30,224 (-100%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,063 $15 −$1,048 (-99%)
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,063 $15 −$1,048 (-99%)
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,063 $15 −$1,048 (-99%)
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,063 $15 −$1,048 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$132 +22254%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +1405%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 12 $0 +$10 +5739%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 +$15 +13473%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$14 +7149%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 +$6 +4381%
Will "AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Eddie Murphy" be the #2 Jun 12 $0 $0 -173%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $374 −$196 -52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $308 −$167 -54%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $75 −$25 -33%
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $73 −$55 -75%
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? Jun 12 $261 −$261 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $28 −$12 -44%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $634 +$101 +16%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $684 +$51 +8%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $583 +$292 +50%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $631 +$244 +39%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $634 +$241 +38%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $634 +$241 +38%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $583 +$152 +26%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $626 +$109 +18%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $627 +$108 +17%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $633 +$102 +16%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $579 +$156 +27%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $633 +$242 +38%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $634 +$101 +16%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $684 +$51 +7%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $630 +$105 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 68% −$83,253
politics 18% $0
weather 7% −$385
tech 2% −$25
sports 2% −$261
finance 1% −$196
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 3m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 20¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 3m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 3m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $8 3m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $7 3m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $8 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 19¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $10 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $4 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 46¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $6 4m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 22¢ $15 5m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 95¢ $63 5m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 99¢ $65 5m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 99¢ $141 5m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 82¢ $55 5m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 99¢ $6 5m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 100¢ $142 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+328.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +373.8% +328.6% 70% 63% +3.9%
≤30d 30 +373.8% +328.6% 70% 63% +3.9%
≤90d 30 +373.8% +328.6% 70% 63% +3.9%
all 30 +373.8% +328.6% 70% 63% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2964.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +328.6% 63% +3.9%
10% ← realistic here +287.6% 43% -6.0%
15% +250.2% 37% -15.1%
20% +215.8% 23% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,497.65 · official $1,496.06 (match) · 3500 history records