Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FB 0xfbdd…9ba3 crypto 611 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,675 (+10%) realized +$2,768 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%329W / 279L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Fees−$340est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$863
7 days+$1,131
14 days+$2,082
30 days+$2,284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$2,247
crypto 35% −$17
other 0% −$14
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
world 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +27.0% +14.9% 49% 44% -1.8%
≤30d 175 +7.5% -2.7% 49% 45% +2.7%
≤90d 608 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 48% -1.7%
all 608 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 48% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 48% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 43% -11.1%
15% -27.0% 37% -19.7%
20% -34.2% 31% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$25 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2,768
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses329 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$340
Open positions3
Markets (closed)608 / 611
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 608 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 59¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $244 −$164 -67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$6 -32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $205 +$71 +35%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $219 +$102 +47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $242 +$142 +59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $178 +$373 +210%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$9 -44%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $100 −$47 -47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$45 -45%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $405 −$67 -17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$74 -74%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $100 −$1 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $176 +$347 +197%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $116 +$90 +77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $298 −$28 -9%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $105 +$77 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $185 +$49 +26%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $141 −$141 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $14 +$31 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $41 +$48 +118%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$130 +1463%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $204 +$20 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$4 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $660 +$124 +19%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $121 −$83 -68%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $401 +$116 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $80 +$112 +140%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 +$185 +185%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $100 +$197 +197%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $80 +$86 +107%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $305 +$160 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $195 −$104 -53%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $160 −$160 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $210 −$210 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $100 +$75 +75%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $489 +$24 +5%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 11 $110 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $20 +$47 +238%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $100 +$129 +129%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $303 −$260 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 26¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 26¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 61¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 62¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 62¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 61¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 62¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 63¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 62¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 65¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 64¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 63¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 63¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 63¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 30¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 30¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 30¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 30¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 34¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 46¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.64 · official $1.64 (match) · 3500 history records