Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfbe3…81f2 crypto 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$563 (+0%) realized +$563 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%119W / 9L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$982per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$211
14 days+$444
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$712
other 19% −$655
sports 5% +$542
world 0% +$3
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.9% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 94 +0.4% -9.1% 99% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 94 +0.4% -9.1% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 128 +1.5% -8.1% 93% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 2% -9.1%
10% -16.9% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 1% -25.7%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$2,161) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$83 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$563
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses119 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage178d
Avg bet$982
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $665 +$53 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $2,107 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET Jun 29 $659 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET Jun 28 $193 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $69 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $694 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $901 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET Jun 28 $311 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $182 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET Jun 27 $2,747 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $2,561 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2PM ET Jun 26 $264 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $2,477 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $1,029 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $44 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $2,662 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $121 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $2,680 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $393 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $2,131 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $2,648 +$27 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $2,622 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $2,600 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $2,583 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $2,580 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $2,552 +$26 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $300 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $2,232 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $392 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET Jun 20 $924 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $2,525 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET Jun 20 $620 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $576 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2,508 +$7 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $995 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $664 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $2,486 +$7 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $2,463 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $483 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $2,434 +$23 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2,421 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $2,395 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $419 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,391 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2,365 +$24 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $658 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2,107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $108 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $220 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $41 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $142 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $69 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $230 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $464 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $579 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $87 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $217 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $185 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $124 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $157 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2,683 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $63 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2,013 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 849 history records