Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfbe4…f12f sports 1712 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%902W / 780L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$77
14 days+$29
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 53% -6.5%
≤30d 695 -9.3% -17.9% 51% 50% -10.5%
≤90d 1682 -1.0% -10.5% 54% 53% -9.7%
all 1682 -1.0% -10.5% 54% 53% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 53% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 51% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 46% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 38% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses902 / 780
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions30
Markets (closed)1682 / 1712
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 1682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Enrico Dalla Valle 70¢ 74¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+7%)
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Fiona Ferro 65¢ 68¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Hernan Casanova 82¢ 86¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Xiyu Wang 83¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Elina Svitolina 66¢ 98¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+48%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 62¢ 66¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 79¢ 81¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 51¢ 55¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 55¢ 54¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Gibson vs. Zheng: Match O/U 21.5 Over 52¢ 54¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Aliona Falei 61¢ 66¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Juan Manuel La Serna 74¢ 80¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Paris Basketball 65¢ 64¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 61¢ 66¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Titouan Droguet 56¢ 55¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Zhizhen Zhang 53¢ 56¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Alejandro Tabilo 52¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 61¢ 52¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Dimitrov vs. Rodesch: Match O/U 22.5 Over 54¢ 50¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) Tien 62¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Fabian Marozsan 46¢ 64¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+40%)
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Oliver Crawford 55¢ 54¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Clement Tabur 44¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Frederico Ferreira Silva 53¢ 55¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Paulo Dos Santos 58¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kovacevic vs. Cerundolo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $41 +$12 +29%
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) Jun 16 $16 $0 -2%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $6 +$7 +123%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $7 +$5 +70%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5) Jun 16 $12 +$4 +38%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $5 +$3 +76%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $16 +$5 +32%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $17 +$7 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $33 +$14 +43%
Joao Fonseca vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$3 +57%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Zarazua (+1.5) Jun 16 $16 +$10 +59%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $12 +$8 +62%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $12 +$10 +83%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $40 +$6 +14%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $14 +$15 +105%
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $19 −$1 -3%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $6 +$4 +64%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $17 +$5 +32%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Siniakova vs. Masarova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Set Handicap: Grabher (-1.5) vs Paquet (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Jun 16 $7 +$4 +59%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Set Handicap: Erel (-1.5) vs Tabata (+1.5) Jun 16 $19 −$18 -98%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 15 $37 −$37 -99%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $43 −$1 -2%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $17 +$16 +97%
Set Handicap: Bonzi (-1.5) vs Barrios (+1.5) Jun 15 $7 +$6 +93%
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $31 −$1 -2%
Set Handicap: Jones (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5) Jun 15 $19 +$5 +24%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $25 +$14 +54%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $11 +$10 +93%
Buse vs. Jodar: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $36 +$30 +82%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $13 +$5 +38%
Estevez vs. Linde: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $8 +$5 +64%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Jun 15 $9 +$6 +70%
Set Handicap: Navarro (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Alastair Gray vs. Tristan Schoolkate: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$1 -11%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $31 +$6 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kovacevic vs. Cerundolo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 18m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Felix Gill 100¢ $13 35m
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena SELL Roberto Carballes Baena 100¢ $22 46m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa SELL Mia Ristic 100¢ $12 1h
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5) SELL Hurkacz 100¢ $16 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel SELL Arthur Fery 100¢ $8 1h
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Ruzic (+1.5) BUY Ruzic 59¢ $3 1h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin SELL Chun-Hsin Tseng 100¢ $21 1h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Jacob Fearnley 100¢ $24 1h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $47 1h
Joao Fonseca vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 100¢ $9 1h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Zarazua (+1.5) SELL Noskova 100¢ $26 2h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Brandon Nakashima 100¢ $20 2h
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 45¢ $3 2h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu SELL Daniel Jade 100¢ $46 2h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 65¢ $11 2h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 100¢ $29 3h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon SELL Raphael Collignon 100¢ $10 3h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 61¢ $7 3h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 58¢ $3 3h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 55¢ $4 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $22 4h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 53¢ $7 4h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) BUY Tien 62¢ $5 4h
Gibson vs. Zheng: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $13 4h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 61¢ $8 4h
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $19 4h
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) BUY Yastremska 50¢ $16 4h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 82¢ $25 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $443.78 · official $449.87 · 3500 history records