Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
FB 0xfbe8…838b crypto 9 markets active 6h ago coverage 101d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$143 (-7%) realized −$109 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$112
politics 34% −$1
crypto 11% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤30d 2 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤90d 5 -10.8% -19.3% 60% 20% -28.9%
all 8 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 12% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 12% -14.4%
10% -23.7% 12% -22.6%
15% -31.1% 12% -30.1%
20% -37.8% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$40 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$109
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage101d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Down 47¢ 6¢ $40 $5 −$34 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $39 +$2 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 16 $38 +$1 +3%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $154 −$152 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $162 −$8 -5%
76ers vs. Jazz Apr 09 $114 +$49 +43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 11? Mar 21 $114 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $710 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 47¢ $41 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 95¢ $39 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 97¢ $38 45d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Hornets 60¢ $154 64d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 92¢ $155 72d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 97¢ $162 72d
76ers vs. Jazz BUY 76ers 70¢ $114 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 101d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $711 101d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 101d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $709 101d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $710 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.47 · official $5.47 (match) · 16 history records