Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FB 0xfbe8…bb28 sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,695 (-14%) realized −$6,680 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%71W / 78L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$683est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,607
7 days−$3,797
14 days−$3,133
30 days−$7,057
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$7,072
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -28.5% -35.3% 45% 41% -31.2%
≤30d 149 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 44% -23.6%
≤90d 149 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 44% -23.6%
all 149 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 44% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 44% -23.6%
10% -24.5% 42% -30.9%
15% -31.8% 38% -37.6%
20% -38.4% 30% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$285 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$1,547
Realized−$6,680
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses71 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$683
Open positions3
Markets (closed)149 / 152
History coverage31d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 53¢ 52¢ $739 $732 −$7 (-1%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 53¢ 52¢ $650 $644 −$6 (-1%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 53¢ 52¢ $173 $171 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $538 +$519 +96%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division Jun 17 $94 −$93 -99%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $179 +$63 +35%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $150 +$14 +10%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $90 −$89 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $660 −$650 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $179 −$176 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $75 −$74 -98%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $47 +$17 +35%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $91 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $150 −$147 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $343 −$340 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $555 −$548 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $172 +$126 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $191 +$116 +61%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $313 −$309 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $641 +$397 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,195 −$1,182 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $436 +$382 +88%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $160 +$62 +39%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $187 +$109 +58%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $360 −$332 -92%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $94 −$92 -97%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $841 −$831 -99%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $123 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $189 −$186 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $96 +$50 +52%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $600 +$711 +119%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 13 $74 +$35 +48%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $874 −$859 -98%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $297 +$94 +32%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $228 +$243 +107%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $238 +$104 +44%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $228 −$224 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $610 +$305 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $501 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $215 −$213 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $947 −$23 -2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $93 −$92 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $271 −$266 -98%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $244 +$106 +44%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $618 +$257 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $596 +$339 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $201 +$43 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 206.5 Jun 11 $500 +$15 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $30 −$21 -70%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $406 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 10 $823 −$814 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $175 34m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $375 58m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $374 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $330 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $330 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $15 10h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY AaB Bulls 67¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY AaB Bulls 66¢ $87 13h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL CHAOS 50¢ $135 13h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL CHAOS 44¢ $21 14h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL CHAOS 48¢ $47 15h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL CHAOS 40¢ $39 15h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 28¢ $90 15h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 41¢ $90 15h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $165 16h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $90 19h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 91¢ $150 21h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $90 24h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $90 24h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 48¢ $89 24h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $90 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $330 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $330 25h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $90 25h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $90 25h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $89 26h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $90 26h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $75 36h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close SELL Game Master 100¢ $64 39h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Game Master 73¢ $47 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,547.26 · official $1,547.26 (match) · 534 history records