Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FB 0xfbe9…42a1 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$5 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%22W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$8
other 13% +$16
politics 7% −$21
world 5% −$5
tech 1% +$1
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 74% -9.8%
≤30d 19 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 74% -9.8%
≤90d 19 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 74% -9.8%
all 34 +2.2% -7.5% 65% 65% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 65% -9.8%
10% -16.4% 41% -18.5%
15% -24.5% 26% -26.3%
20% -31.9% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses22 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage167d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$5 +19%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 05 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 19 $1 $0 -30%
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Jan 15 $5 +$1 +30%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $5 −$2 -36%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 14 $1 $0 -36%
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? Jan 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 13 $1 +$1 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $39 +$6 +15%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $5 $0 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $14 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $31 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 23h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 145d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 SELL Yes 7¢ $1 151d
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App SELL Yes 36¢ $6 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.74 · official $6.74 (match) · 95 history records